All Theses and Dissertations
Degree
Master of Science in Economics
Faculty / School
Faculty of Business Administration (FBA)
Department
Department of Economics
Date of Award
Fall 2020
Advisor
Dr. Adnan Haider
Committee Member 1
Dr. Adnan Haider, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi
Project Type
Thesis
Access Type
Restricted Access
Pages
x, 105
Keywords
Macro-econometric model, Forecasting, 3SLS, Pakistan’s economy
Abstract
In this thesis, a medium-size model of the economy of Pakistan has been specified to better understand the underlying dynamics of the Pakistan’s economy. The model has been divided into real, monetary, fiscal, supply-side, and external sector. There is a total of 45 behavioral equations in the model. Time-series data for the years 1973-2020 has been used to estimate the model. The estimation of the model is carried out using the three-stage least square method of estimation. In addition, the model has been validated using the root mean square error and mean absolute scale error. In-sample simulation of the endogenous variables has also been carried out to assess the ability of the model in tracing the time-series. Out of sample forecasts using judgmental values of various exogenous variables is also carried out for future path of the endogenous variables. Overall, the performance of the model is quite good in tracing the time path of the endogenous variables, consistent with the long-term trend of the endogenous variables.
JEL Classification: C36, C51, C52, C53, C54, E61, O21
Link to Catalog Record
https://ils.iba.edu.pk/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=114099
Recommended Citation
Ali, I. (2020). A medium size macro-econometric model of Pakistan’s economy (Unpublished master's thesis). Institute of Business Administration, Pakistan. Retrieved from https://ir.iba.edu.pk/etd/65
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