A medium size macro-econometric model of Pakistan’s economy

Author

Ijaz Ali, Institute of Business AdministrationFollow

Degree

Master of Science in Economics

Faculty / School

Faculty of Business Administration (FBA)

Department

Department of Economics

Date of Award

Fall 2020

Advisor

Dr. Adnan Haider

Committee Member 1

Dr. Adnan Haider, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi

Project Type

Thesis

Access Type

Restricted Access

Pages

x, 105

Keywords

Macro-econometric model, Forecasting, 3SLS, Pakistan’s economy

Abstract

In this thesis, a medium-size model of the economy of Pakistan has been specified to better understand the underlying dynamics of the Pakistan’s economy. The model has been divided into real, monetary, fiscal, supply-side, and external sector. There is a total of 45 behavioral equations in the model. Time-series data for the years 1973-2020 has been used to estimate the model. The estimation of the model is carried out using the three-stage least square method of estimation. In addition, the model has been validated using the root mean square error and mean absolute scale error. In-sample simulation of the endogenous variables has also been carried out to assess the ability of the model in tracing the time-series. Out of sample forecasts using judgmental values of various exogenous variables is also carried out for future path of the endogenous variables. Overall, the performance of the model is quite good in tracing the time path of the endogenous variables, consistent with the long-term trend of the endogenous variables.

JEL Classification: C36, C51, C52, C53, C54, E61, O21

Link to Catalog Record

https://ils.iba.edu.pk/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=114099

Recommended Citation

Ali, I. (2020). A medium size macro-econometric model of Pakistan’s economy (Unpublished master's thesis). Institute of Business Administration, Pakistan. Retrieved from https://ir.iba.edu.pk/etd/65