Publication Date

3-28-2012

Description

I would first like to sketch before you the major global trends which would be affecting Pakistan in the future. This will provide the context in which the businesses have to make decisions. There are at least five broad trends which are highly relevant. First, the economic power balance is shifting from the U.S., Europe and Japan to Asian countries. The crises of 2007-08 did not fully debunk the myth of decoupling between the advanced and emerging economies as the spillover and contagion effects were quite destabilizing. The speed, intensity and spread of financial and then real economy crisis were too ferocious to spare any country of some consequence. But the resilience and the rapid recovery shown by the Asian countries, particularly the three most populous countries China, India and Indonesia, accounting for population of almost 3 billion, was simply remarkable. China resumed its growth trajectory and attained 8 to 9 percent growth rate. India is projecting growth rate around 6 to 7 percent and Indonesia slightly below these rates. 70% of world’s growth over the next few years would come from emerging economies with 40% from China and India. China has overtaken Germany as the world’s largest exporting nation and that too starting from almost a scratch thirty years ago. Asian markets and the expanding middle classes will be numerically much higher than the combined population of the U.S., Europe and Japan. This large consumer class will generate enormous demand for goods and services that has not been witnessed before. China has already surpassed the U.S. in the sales of autos while the number of potential customers is rising rapidly.

Notes

Keynote address delivered at the International Conference on Business Management organized by the University of Management and Technology at Lahore on March 28, 2012

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