Article Type

Article

Description

Economists have a very poor track record of forecasting the future as the dynamic interactions between complex variables, an imperfect understanding of the non-economic factors and the occurrence of unanticipated exogenous shocks turn their judgements into hit and miss episodes. Despite these weaknesses economic forecasting flourishes as a discipline and the economists show indomitable courage to sketch out their scenarios of an uncertain and unknown future. This article therefore examines the past developments, current trends of Pakistani economy and the future global and regional outlook and builds the most likely scenario for the medium term economic prospects of the country (next 10 years or so) and then reviews the downside risks and upside gains around this scenario.

Publication Source

Dawn

Publication Date

3-23-2007

Pages

1-7

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Economics Commons

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