COVID-19: An evidence-based and disaster response methodology

Author Affiliation

  • Dr. S. M. Faisal Iradat is an Assistant Professor at Department of Computer Science, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi
  • Engr. Dr. Syed Irfan Nabi is an Assistant Professor at Department of Computer Science, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi
  • Dr. Zaheeruddin Asif is an Assistant Professor at Department of Computer Science, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi

Faculty / School

School of Mathematics and Computer Science (SMCS)

Department

Department of Computer Science

Was this content written or created while at IBA?

Yes

Document Type

Article

Source Publication

Nigerian Journal of Basic and Clinical Sciences

Disciplines

Bioinformatics | Emergency and Disaster Management

Abstract

The world is gradually getting out of the grip of COVID‑19 pandemic, although there are still high number of cases in some countries. Most of the initial attempts to predict and project the course of pandemic were hypothetical or based on historical data, as no current and specific data were available in the early days of pandemic. Most governments followed the policy of “flattening the curve” in order to avoid overwhelming their health systems. Most of the world also followed the policy of forced lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus. However, these policies produced did not produce consistent results across the globe. To investigate the impact of various policy measures on the reported outcomes, this research analyzed the actual COVID‑19 data up till May 29, 2021, and the associated outcomes. Using global COVID‑19 death rate as a base, the death rates of various countries were analyzed to gauge the efficacy of lockdown measures through probabilistic estimates and relative lack of uncertainty. Brierscore was calculated to find the accuracy of probabilistic estimates. The data show high divergence in infection, death, and growth rates of the virus in different countries. The research also includes comparing the effects of virus in year 2020 and 2021, and the effect of vaccination. It can be seen that the collective world response was not commensurate with the actual risks involved. The paper concludes by emphasizing the need for specific evidence‑based governance and disaster response management to face similar challenges in the future.

Indexing Information

Scopus, Web of Science - Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)

Citation/Publisher Attribution

Faisal Iradat SM, Uddin MZ, Nabi SI, Asif Z. COVID-19: An evidence-based and disaster response methodology. Niger J Basic Clin Sci 2023;20:1-9.

Publication Status

Published

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International License.

Rights Information

This is an open access journal, and articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License, which allows others to remix, tweak, and build upon the work non-commercially, as long as appropriate credit is given and the new creations are licensed under the identical terms.

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