All Theses and Dissertations

Degree

Master of Science in Economics

Faculty / School

School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS)

Department

Department of Economics

Date of Award

Spring 2021

Advisor

Dr. Adnan Haider

Committee Member 1

Dr. Adnan Haider, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi

Project Type

Thesis

Access Type

Restricted Access

Pages

vii, 51

Abstract

Macro econometric modelling was pioneered by Tinbergen to study more accurately the business cycles fluctuations of the American economy. Further progress was made in subsequent years and large macro models were developed not only for one country but also for cross country analyses used by institutions like World Bank and International Monetary Fund. This dissertation is an extension of the same intellectual stream, the only difference being, that it is a comparison of the existing models of the Pakistan economy. It includes four models in addition to the one recently developed by researchers at Institute of Business Administration Karachi. Time series data has been used from 1973-2020. Using the results of mean absolute scale error and root mean squared error the performance and forecasting ability of the models has been compared. It has been observed that the results of this dissertation are consistent with those found in the literature. No single model has the ability to outperform all the models in comparison. Performance of the models can be enhanced by improving the specification and defining the variables subject to the exegeses of the economy being studied. The four models in addition to the model developed by scholars at IBA include, (1) a small size macro-econometric model of Pakistan’s economy (Hanif, Hyder, Lodhi, Khan , & Batool, May, 2010), (2) A macro econometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan (Hassan & Shahzad, 2011), (3) A macro-econometric model of stabilization and growth of Pakistan (Imran, 2010), and (4) A dynamic macro-econometric model of Pakistan’s economy (Khan & Din, 2011). For the purposes of identification, the model developed by scholars at IBA will be named as IBA-2020. However, it is worth mentioning that it has not been published yet and should not be considered as published.

JEL Classification: C01, C50, C51, C52, C53

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