Student Number

25321

Degree

Master of Science in Development Studies

Department

Department of Economics

School

School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS)

Date of Submission

Summer 8-8-2025

Supervisor

Dr. Junaid Alam Memon, Professor, Department of Social Sciences and Liberal Arts, Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi

Co-Supervisor

Dr. Muhammad Arfan, Senior Researcher, Centre for Climate and Environmental Research, Lahore

Committee Member 1

Dr. Anwar Hussain, Associate Professor & Chairman Department of Economics and Development Studies, University of Swat, Swat

Committee Member 2

Dr. Arslan Waheed, Assistant Professor & Graduate Program Coordinator, Department of Social Sciences and Liberal Arts, Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi

Keywords

Water Security, Economic Trade-offs, Environmental Trade-offs, Edible Oil Self-Sufficiency, Palm Oil, Coastal Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan produces only 12-13% of its edible oil requirements and relies heavily on imports, with palm oil comprising nearly 90% of the total. A 1994 study by the National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC) suggested the potential for domestic oil palm cultivation in Sindh; however, the urgency to reassess this potential in coastal Sindh has grown considerably due to the widening trade deficit, increasing water scarcity, and climate change. This study assesses whether domestic oil palm cultivation could make economic, social, and environmental sense, and if Pakistan has any comparative advantage in terms of domestic production and substituting its traditional coastal cash crops with the cultivation of oil palms. A weighted overlay method, incorporating climate, soil, and land use data, was used to generate the updated oil palm suitability map, which was further analysed in conjunction with economic and environmental data to inform policy recommendations. Results reveal that out of a total of 3.2 million hectares of land, some 1.08 million hectares fall within the oil palm cultivation suitability range of 60-80%. This represents a 92.86% increase from the 0.56 million hectares identified in the 1994 NARC study, attributable possibly to improved irrigation access and potentially to climatic changes. Economically, oil palm cultivation on total suitable land could yield an estimated 2.83 million metric tons of palm oil annually, valued at USD 2.5 billion, with maximum water use estimated at 13.01 km³ per year, reducible to 0.13 km³ through drip irrigation. Employment impacts range from 108,000 to 362,000 jobs at the farm level, though net agricultural employment may decline compared to existing crops, with offsetting opportunities in downstream industries. Environmentally, oil palms could sequester up to 83 million metric tons of carbon over 30 years, generating potential revenues of USD 418.28 million to USD 2.32 billion. Overall, the findings suggest that oil palm cultivation in coastal Sindh presents a viable strategy for enhancing economic benefits, optimising land and water use, and advancing Pakistan’s edible oil self-sufficiency.

Submission Type

Thesis

Document Type

Restricted Access

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