Master of Business Administration

Faculty / School

School of Business Studies (SBS)


Faisal Jalal, Visiting Faculty, Department of Marketing

Project Type

MBA Research Project

Keywords">Steel Industry, Import & Export of Steel Pipes, Demand Forecasting, Forecasting Models

Abstract / Summary

Demand of Steel in Pakistan is fulfilled through two main sources: domestic production and import. The supply of steel from both the sources has significantly increased from the year 2011 to 2017 due to increased demand in automotive, electronic appliances, automobile, industrial, construction and infrastructure sectors. The demand increased almost double in the later years due to CPEC and other domestic projects. However, from the year 2018, the demand slowed down a bit due to a major dip in construction industry. Despite uncertain economic conditions, global pandemic and government policies, the demand rapidly increased during last 12 years, but the need was fulfilled majorly through imports, making the steel products/material so costly for the companies and relevant sectors, shows that the domestic production did not grow as per the demand and could not progress and not able to meet even close to half of the total market need.

Client Company’s steel consumption is solely dependent upon the imports and the company is bearing a major cost in it. That too with a very uncertain import schedule, having a higher lead time and forecasting inaccuracy. For the time being company cannot avoid the cost due to import but the cost which occurs due to variability in demand and inaccuracy in forecast can be minimized. For this purpose, we initiated a project with Client to work on developing a better demand forecasting model using supply chain analytics. Aim was to identify the leading indicators for product demand and product specific forecasting models to demand forecasting which ultimately decrease the company’s cost that occurs due to high inventory or sale loss.

To build a desired model, we acquired the historical demand and sales data from Client Company. Several structured and unstructured interviews were conducted with people from different departments of the company, more frequent with the sales and supply chain. An understanding was developed, and certain products were decided for the focus. Previous studies and journals were consulted for the secondary research.

Available for download on Sunday, April 07, 2030