Estimating Recurrence Intervals of Extreme Rainfall Through a Probabilistic Modeling Approach for Different Urban Cities of Pakistan

Author Affiliation

Muhammad Shahid Qureshi is Professor at the Department of Mathematical Sciences, Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi.

Faculty / School

Faculty of Computer Sciences (FCS)


Department of Computer Science

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Document Type


Source Publication

Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering




Extreme rainfall events give rise to severe flooding in Pakistan and their increasing magnitude have an extremely detrimental impact on the urban infrastructure. This work is an attempt to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme rainfalls for the period 1981-2010 using extreme value theory through probabilistic modeling for different urban cities (Skurdu, Muzaffarabad, Quetta, Peshawar, Lahore and Karachi) of Pakistan. We use four models [generalized extreme value (GEV), Frechet, Weibull and Gumbel maximum] based on the extremal type theorem, among which the GEV distribution appears to be the best fitted model. Calculations reveal that among the considered urban cities, Muzaffarabad and Skurdu have the highest (129 mm) and lowest amount (41mm) of daily rainfall for the 5-year recurrence interval, respectively. The estimated 5-year recurrence interval for Lahore is 100 mm, while for Quetta, Peshawar and Karachi it is more than 50 mm. The aim of this paper is to present a contemporary statistical view of this problem.

Indexing Information

HJRS - W Category, Scopus, Web of Science - Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI)

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