Estimating Recurrence Intervals of Extreme Rainfall Through a Probabilistic Modeling Approach for Different Urban Cities of Pakistan
Faculty / School
Faculty of Computer Sciences (FCS)
Department of Computer Science
Was this content written or created while at IBA?
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering
Extreme rainfall events give rise to severe flooding in Pakistan and their increasing magnitude have an extremely detrimental impact on the urban infrastructure. This work is an attempt to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme rainfalls for the period 1981-2010 using extreme value theory through probabilistic modeling for different urban cities (Skurdu, Muzaffarabad, Quetta, Peshawar, Lahore and Karachi) of Pakistan. We use four models [generalized extreme value (GEV), Frechet, Weibull and Gumbel maximum] based on the extremal type theorem, among which the GEV distribution appears to be the best fitted model. Calculations reveal that among the considered urban cities, Muzaffarabad and Skurdu have the highest (129 mm) and lowest amount (41mm) of daily rainfall for the 5-year recurrence interval, respectively. The estimated 5-year recurrence interval for Lahore is 100 mm, while for Quetta, Peshawar and Karachi it is more than 50 mm. The aim of this paper is to present a contemporary statistical view of this problem.
HJRS - W Category, Scopus, Web of Science - Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI)
Sadiq, N., & Qureshi, M. S. (2014). Estimating Recurrence Intervals of Extreme Rainfall Through a Probabilistic Modeling Approach for Different Urban Cities of Pakistan. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 39 (1), 191-198. Retrieved from https://ir.iba.edu.pk/faculty-research-articles/116